Tonnage Supply Adjustments
Feb. 22, 2018
Vessel Delays in Port
Adjustments to our tonnage supply assumption also takes into account the average number of days a vessel spends in port for each voyage. We conduct an analysis of average port times on an annual basis using data from actual voyages derived from our proprietary data system. The results of these findings are compared to the assessments made in our tonnage supply calculations. Port delays extend the duration of a voyage and reduce tanker availability. In extreme cases this can have a significant impact on short-term freight rates. Over the past years, we observed how extended delays can create upward pressure in the market. VLCCs were, at various times, delayed all over the globe, including the Basrah Oil Terminal (for 20 days at times), Black Sea, China, South America and even the US Gulf during load/discharge operations. Weather volatility (hurricanes, fog) in the US Gulf may lead to serious delay issues, prompting freight rates associated with the US Gulf to find support. Table 1 shows the results of these investigations.
Vessel Slow Steaming
Tanker fleets operate at various speeds depending on market conditions. Factors that impact this decision are bunker costs, spot rates and the relationship between vessel supply and demand. Historically, we assumed that the global fleet sailed at an average speed of 14.5 knots based on industry standards.
However, as the earnings environment has weakened and further pressure is projected, we anticipate that owners may look to decrease their transiting speeds, particularly on the ballast leg, to take advantage of this environment. Reduced speeds will decrease tonnage availability and may provide upward support on rates. In today’s environment of rising bunker costs and declining freight rates, operators are using the optimum speed curve, which originates from the era of steam turbine engines. This curve implies that vessels should be operated at different speeds depending on market conditions.
The decision to decrease speeds may help owners to earn more on their vessels. We include an illustration of increased tonnage supply across various fleet sizes (Table 2). This based on the assumption of +/- 1 knot change in speed. Given the current tonnage supply outlook and projected decline in earnings, we remain of the opinion that owners will continue to reduce speeds. Our analysis of remotely-sensed vessel position data does indeed show this development with ballast speeds falling 0.3 knots from 2016 to 2017.
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